Summary
Report assessing the relevance of causal precursors of abrupt transitions in European regional climates, including a risk assessment. A strong focus will be on the Mediterranean region. Rapid transitions in regional climates in high-resolution climate model simulations covering the 20th and 21st century will be identified. Potential precursors include an AMOC collapse, remote influences (e.g. Pacific or Arctic changes) and regional effects derived from vegetation changes and/or changed land-atmosphere feedbacks (Task 3.4).
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